Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim?
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On April 7, 2008 NASA Scientist Dr. James Hansen and colleagues authored this paper. It is the foundation for the efforts by Hansen, Bill McKibben, the 350 Campaign and others to seek a reduction of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels to 350 parts per million in order to maintain human life and civilization on Earth as we know it.
Paleoclimate data show that climate sensitivity is ~3 deg-C for doubled CO2, including only fast feedback processes. Equilibrium sensitivity, including slower surface albedo feedbacks, is ~6 deg-C for doubled CO2 for the range of climate states between glacial conditions and ice-free Antarctica. Decreasing CO2 was the main cause of a cooling trend that began 50 million years ago, large scale glaciation occurring when CO2 fell to 450 +/- 100 ppm, a level that will be exceeded within decades, barring prompt policy changes. If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted, paleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that CO2 will need to be reduced from its current 385 ppm to at most 350 ppm. The largest uncertainty in the target arises from possible changes of non-CO2 forcings. An initial 350 ppm CO2 target may be achievable by phasing out coal use except where CO2 is captured and adopting agricultural and forestry practices that sequester carbon. If the present overshoot of this target CO2 is not brief, there is a possibility of seeding irreversible catastrophic effects.
Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim? (PDF)
Target atmospheric CO2: Supporting material
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- Nasa Scientist James Hansen Warns the World Must Urgently Make Huge CO2 Reductions
- James Hansen Biography: Scientist
- 350.org Campaign Launches in 8 Languages Today VIDEO 90 seconds WATCH >>
- Bill McKibben and the Magic Number 350
- Keeling Curve: Our Breathing Planet and CO2 Rising
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- International Day of Climate Action Invitation: October 24, 2009
- Brighter Planet and 350.org Challenge Bloggers to Offset Carbon Emissions With Onsite Badge
- George Spyros on Huffington Post: 350 Is The Most Important Number of Your Lifetime
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